Why India Walks a Tightrope Between US and Russia

As the Cold War split the world into two camps starting in the 1950s, newly independent India became a founder of the Non-Aligned Movement — a group of countries that officially sided neither with Washington nor with Moscow. Today, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has advanced an inverted version of the policy, picking and choosing relationships that he believes best suit India's interests. Most notably, the South Asian nation is deepening security links with the US — with which it shares concerns about an increasingly assertive China — while snapping up military hardware and cheap crude oil from Russia. The question is, how long it can stay close to both sides while they themselves pull further apart over the war in Ukraine? With India chairing the Group of 20 nations this year, the dance has become more delicate.

1. Is India a US ally?

India and the US have been strategic partners for at least two decades, meaning they can build relationships and cooperate militarily but aren't formal, treaty-bound allies. While they have much in common — both large, heterogeneous democracies — New Delhi doesn't feel bound to sync its worldview with Washington's. For a long time, India was leery of the US, largely because of its close military and security ties with Pakistan, India's neighbor and archrival. But the relationship has improved in large part due to China's emergence as a new, rival power. The US has enlisted India as a member in the so-called Quad grouping, an alliance of democracies in the Indo-Pacific that share economic and security interests. (Japan and Australia are the other two members.) This year, the US and India laid out a plan to share more advanced defense and computing technologies.

2. What is India's relationship with Russia?

Despite its avowed non-alignment during the Cold War, India gravitated to the Soviet Union's sphere. For decades India's economic strategy was laid out in Soviet-style, five-year plans. Close cultural and people-to-people ties also grew along with artistic and academic exchanges. But at the heart of the relationship is New Delhi's long dependence on Moscow as its main supplier of weapons — a relationship that developed after Pakistan aligned itself with the US. That military bond extends to spare parts and maintenance and would be extremely expensive to break. Continued border tensions with Pakistan as well as China add to sensitivities in New Delhi about preserving the supply chain.

3. Has the war in Ukraine changed anything?

It's provided windfalls and obstacles. The Group of Seven imposed a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude in December in an unprecedented attempt to reduce Russia's revenue without creating shortages on the overall market. India — the world's third-largest crude importer — has been lapping up Russian oil without violating international sanctions. On the other hand, Indian officials told Bloomberg in April that Russian deliveries of military supplies had ground to a halt over payment difficulties: India was unable to settle the bill in US dollars due to concerns about secondary sanctions, while Russia was unwilling to accept rupees due to exchange-rate volatility. India has stood out among major democracies for its reluctance to criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin, and has abstained from United Nations votes condemning the war in Ukraine. However, Modi skipped his annual, bilateral summit with Putin last year after the Russian leader threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. At global forums, Indian officials say that the conflict needs to end because it's hurting developing countries economically by disrupting supply chains and driving up food prices. India may be put on the spot as host of the G-20 summit in September if Putin were to show up. (He skipped the last two amid pressure from the US and its allies over the war).

4. How does the US handle India's Russia ties?

Washington sees India as a bulwark against the spread of China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Its links to Moscow seem to have had no significant political cost. When India started taking delivery of Russia's S-400 missile-defense system in 2021 as part of a $5 billion weapons deal, there were no repercussions. A similar purchase by Turkey prompted the US to ban its ally — a fellow member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — from the US F-35 fighter jet program. India also has faced little public blow back over buying Russian oil, because it's meeting the West's twin goals of crimping Moscow's revenue — by paying discounted prices — while preventing a supply shock by refining much of the crude into fuel for Europe and the US. Modi's welcome at the White House and in Europe despite his government's spotty human rights record, especially with regard to treatment of the country's minority Muslim population, and a crackdown on media freedom.

5. What drives India's foreign policy and where is it headed?

The country, increasingly assertive under Modi, is seeking ties that advance its own interests. In his book The India Way, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar argued that in an increasingly multipolar world, India needs to avoid alliances. Instead, he advocated "identifying and exploiting opportunities created by global contradictions," with the aim of extracting "gains from as many ties as possible."

--With assistance from Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Gregory L. White.

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